Latest jossed theory:

Lukomir’s strategy seems static between runs. Made sense, given he probably had a plan before the throne vacated. Esmerai seems variable, like she was following the player around to spoil or scoop up every vote you didn’t fully lock down. Made sense, given she has fewer contacts, and a very personal grudge against you.

I tried a test run doing nothing but staying put at the starting location, flipping between negative and secretive, giving the most meek or noncommital answers to any forced questions. Despite this, Lukomir only got 23 votes. That feels oddly specific, given the less-than-seven vote threshold needed to eliminate a candidate. With the theory about Esmerai shadowing the player, and so mechanically directed by the player, it might be possible to run around “showing” her where to get just enough votes to force Zorana’s early removal, but still cause a tie. Maybe the candidates would be too afraid of the scandal of assassinating Zorana as a mere loose end if the race isn’t over. Maybe Zorana would be left assassin-free long enough to follow through on needing to make the fallback-plan choice she mentioned, while the remaining candidates were preoccupied with each other.

That would have been a super cool True Ending! The player would need to give up the Tsirkony mood anchor, endure all of the challenges of Esmerai, the lethality of a very hostile Comitia, all for a goal you needed to make broad-picture observations and deductions over multiple runs to even aim for, despite the complete lack of meta-progression, Outer Wilds style!

But nope, assassin still shows up, and the dialogue is even the same as as if you’d been regularly defeated. I was so excited when I finally managed to get a 4-14-9 result without a clear winner, too. Posting because that was a really narrow needle to thread, just in case someone else would spend a lot of time trying the same thing. :(

Gelvat gb fubj Zvexb n zntvp gevpx jvgubhg nal fxvyy unf lbh teno n pelfgny naq gel gb znxr vg tybj jvgu gur cbjre bs lbhe zvaq, naq lbh fgnegyr lbhefrys ol npghnyyl znxvat vg tybj sebz jvguva! Lbh pna’g ercyvpngr gur rssrpg, gubhtu, ohg znlor rabhtu bs gurfr vapvqragf (Xebibf’f crefbany dhrfg?) jvyy unir lbh or yrff qvfzvffvir bs gur gnyrf lbh ernq ba ghea 13.

Pushing the meta-analysis angle, Korundi betraying you for Lukomir makes the game very hard. It’s nice to not need Rhetoric 60 to have a private chat, but cheaping out on Rhetoric leaves you with a displeased electorate. Losing Intrigue 75 for the combined Intrigue + Operations check that follows makes it extremely difficult unless you were angling for it from the start. Alienating Korundi also needs very tight early choices.

I still talk as if the palace is standing by to blow us both out of the sky, even if I didn’t need to make that promise or have Korundi make that promise. Not that my counterparty would have been very keen on me running away empty-handed, anyway.

I might try another grandmaster Intrigue run. I was a bit disappointed at seemingly not finding anything new about my friends, or any of the special characters you couldn’t normally run a background check on.

Lukomir having non-default stats was quite interesting. I wouldn’t expect there to be a way to get him on-side before Mazarin instigates things. There not being any flavour stats for Ethexae, Yukow, Korundi, Muistis, and Big Brother suggests that might be significant. If I go counterclockwise to denounce Oletko and make a good impression on Oberod, not stopping for any social phases, or spending exactly one social phase to get Lorkas to skip the initial Deep Space on the return, I get to Myrkka I in time to have its social phase on Turn 10, which is exactly too late. Though my friends have flavour stats. I wonder what happens if I have advisors in their preferred position before trying to recruit them, if it’s even possible.

Every time I interact with Eve: did you fuck my mom, old woman?

I haven't found any firm proof yet, but I'm pretty convinced. My evidence, for those who are curious:

Gur zbfg boivbhf vf gung vs lbh zneel Rir, fur jvyy fgenvtug hc pnyy lbh ol lbhe zbguref anzr ng gur jrqqvat prerzbal. Fur frrzf gb trg lbh pbashfrq jvgu lbhe zbz n ybg - pnyyvat lbh Vzcrevny Znwrfgl. 

"Jbhyq lbh guvax guvf n tenaq wrfg, zl qrne? Fubhyq V srry thvyg sbe nyybjvat zlfrys gb or grzcgrq? Be jbhyq lbh pnyy guvf n cebcre gvzr sbe n fjrrg qrffreg?" <- pbhyq or nobhg ure yngr jvsr, be pbhyq or nobhg bhe zbz

Vs lbh gryy ure gung lbh bayl jnag n jvsr, abg n uhfonaq: "Jr nyy znxr fnpevsvprf sbe bhe crbcyr. Gung jnf jul lbh zneevrq uvz, jnfa'g vg, zl qrne?"

Vs lbh nterr gb zneel ure: "Nu, vs bayl jr pbhyq or fb lbhat ntnva! N yvsrgvzr ntb, n yvsr eryvirq... Ohg guvf jvyy qb."

Vs lbh pnapry lbhe ratntrzrag gb ure: "Ubj pehry. Gb bssre n qrffreg gb n ybaryl byq jbzna naq gura gb fangpu vg njnl. Lbh'er whfg yvxr lbhe zbgure. N fbhe gneg, n fcbvyrq chqqvat fhvgnoyr bayl gb or srq gb zl zbguf. Arire Rzcerff."

Jura lbh gel naq artbgvngr jvgu ure naq fur qvfyvxrf lbh: "Bu, yvggyr bar, lbh unir n ybat jnl lrg gb tb. Vg fgvyy uhegf nybat lbhe evof jurer lbh sryg gur pehfu, ohg gur jbeyq jba'g yrg na Rzcerff pel. Creuncf lbh'yy rng fbzrbar ryfr'f urneg gb urny lbhe bja. Ohg abg zvar. Abg guvf gvzr."

Vs lbh gnyx jvgu Sver nobhg vs ur xarj lbhe cneragf, ur fnlf:  "Jura V jrag ubzr sbe gur ubyvqnlf V sbhaq gung Zbgure unq znqr n pbyyrpgvba bs jrqqvat zrzbenovyvn naq yvggyr puvan svthevarf bs gur arj Rzcerff Pbafbeg. Znzna gubhtug gurl jrer ihytne genfu. V guvax fur 'nppvqragnyyl' oebxr bar."

Vs lbh yvr nobhg jul lbh qvqa'g jnag gb trg ratntrq gb Sver: "Lbh'er abg ure. Lbh'er n yvne naq n jvgpu, n puvyq-fgrnyre. Lbh jbhyq or n qnatre gb gur Rzcver."

Boivbhfyl, vg'f grkghny gung Rir unq Fbzr Fbeg Bs Qrny jvgu bhe zbz, ohg gur fcrpvsvpf ner hapyrne. V'z abg fher vs vg jnf erdhvgrq be vs Rir vf whfg qryhfvbany. Ohg rvgure jnl, V guva fur fbzrubj tbg npprff gb Zvynavn'f trargvp zngrevny naq hfrq vg gb perngr Fgne. Gung'f jul fur ershfrf gb yrg lbh zneel Fgne haqre nal pvephzfgnaprf - gur trargvp grfgf jbhyq erirny hapbzsbegnoyr gehguf. 

I'm wonder if anyone could kindly give me some advice on how to continue some of the plot threads. I've gathered from the forums that there is:

1. N cybg jurer Xbehaqv orgenlf lbh
2. Fbzrguvat nobhg n funggrerq tynff raqvat
3. Rivy qnq naq Znmneva frrzf gb or hc gb ab tbbq. However, I can't even figure out how to get Mazarin to appear in the story again after he leaves.

I definitely feel like, as of right now, there may be some slight balance difficulties - there are some events which feel inalienably part of the main story that you need certain skills for, but by doing those skills it's almost impossible to diversify your routes. 

Yvxr, hayrff V'z zvffvat fbzrguvat, gur bayl jnl gb svaq Qentbpra naq pbagvahr cynlvat vf ol trggvat Qrprcgvba gb 90 ol ghea 27. Jvgu na vagehfvba 50 purpx, n eurgbevp 50 purpx, naq n cvybgvat 30(?) purpx gb trg gurer, V svaq vg uneq gb oryvrir gurer'f bccbeghavgl sbe zhpu ryfr fxvyy-ohvyqvat. Znlor V'z jebat, ohg V jbhyq crefbanyyl yrffra gur guerfubyqf sbe rnpu bs gurfr purpxf. Qrprcgvba 70/eurgbevp 30/vagehfvba 30? V trg jr'er tbvat sbe n ~gehr raqvat~ ohg V srry yvxr lbh fubhyq or noyr gb tb sbe n gehr raqvat naq nyfb qvirefvsl lbhe cynlfglyr naq fxvyyf eha gb eha. Ntnva, gubhtu, znlor vg'f n fxvyy vffhr, fbeel vs guvf vf hajrypbzr naq V whfg qba'g xabj rabhtu lrg! 

It's not possible to  orpbzr n Yhzra guebhtu npdhvevat gur pelfgny, evtug? Lbh arrq gb svther bhg vg pna or qbar, ohg Mbenan pna'g npghnyyl unir gur Pelfgny orsber gur raq? Gur Yhzra ebhgr erdhverf svthevat bhg vg rkvfgf ohg abg npdhvevat gur pelfgny?

Vf gurer n jnl gb erfbyir gur fvghngvba jvgu Mbenan'f qnq ba ghea 27 jvgubhg orpbzvat n Yhzra? Pna n orrsl Mbenan jvgu jrncbaf/thaf/obql pbageby birecbjre gur Guerfure naq ure qnq? V unira'g cynlrq gung znal cynlguebhtuf, naq gurer znl or bgure ebhgrf, ohg evtug abj V srry yvxr nal eha jurer lbh qba'g qb guvf vf tbvat gb or na riraghny haunccl raqvat, fvapr rzcrebe qnq vf yhexvat va gur onpxtebhaq ernql gb or rivy. V nyfb srry yvxr gurer zhfg or n jnl gb erfbyir  lbhe qnq orvat nyvir jvgubhg hfvat lbhe zbgure'f pelfgny, ohg vs gurer vf V unira'g sbhaq vg.

Nqqvgvbanyyl, pna lbh zneel Infvyl, be jvyy ur bayl or n pbaphovar?  Va zl cynlguebhtu V tbg ratntrq gb trg trargvp grfgvat, naq gura cebzcgyl oebxr vg bss va gur ubcrf gur fprar jvgu Infvyl ng gur raq jbhyq punatr, ohg vg frrzrq vg bayl vzcnpgrq fbzr synibhe grkg.

Lv lw srvvleoh wr vdyh brxu prwkhu ru dwohdvw uhfrqfloh zlwk khu ? krz ?

I've just cleared the Big Event on Turn 27 for the second time (though sadly the election was winnerless), and this time I visited Mau for the first time afterward and watched obgu irefvbaf bs the summoning scene. (Qentbpra'f nccebiny svyyf zr jvgu funzr!) Shortly thereafter a terrible truth dawned (ETA: probably very large lore spoilers ahead!!):

1. Ibfuxbg znxrf pyrne gung Zvynavn vf fbzrubj fcvevghnyyl be cflpuvpnyyl pbaarpgrq gb Rgreany Enqvnapr, naq jneaf Mbenan abg gb gbhpu gur pelfgny onerunaqrq;
2. Mbenan'f zbz qvrf, ure oebgure phgf ure bss, naq Pelfgny Abin vf cvffrq va rirel raqvat V'ir sbhaq fb sne jurer fur hfrf gur pelfgny, rira gur barf jurer fur bayl qbrf fb va gur rcvybthr; 
3. Mbenan jnf pybarq fcrpvsvpnyyl gb or noyr gb hfr gur pelfgny, naq vaqrrq trgf irel nggnpurq/nyzbfg nqqvpgrq gb univat vg arne ure nsgre hfvat vg bayl bapr;
4. Qentbpra unf nofbyhgryl ab pbaprea nobhg uvf jvsr fgvyy orvat nyvir, naq pyrneyl cynaarq gb hfr Mbenan nf n jrncba;
5. Zvynavn'f fcvevg pnyyf Mbenan n guvrs naq zheqrere naq unf qvrq irel erpragyl;

Hfvat gur Rgreany Enqvnapr pelfgny xvyyf Mbenan'f zbz.

So now I'm wondering:  jvyy gurer or nal bgure jnl gb qrsrng Qentbpra? Be vs abg, qb V whfg unir gb qrny jvgu nyy Abin ungvat zr nsgrejneqf? Vapvarengvat ure rivy qnq vf qrsvavgryl n cbfvgvir sbe Mbenan, nethnoyl bar sbe rirelobql ryfr gbb, ohg Zvynavn qlvat xvaq bs fhpxf sbe gur Abinaf naq gur gnggrerq yrff-rivy erznvaf bs Mbenan'f snzvyl. (Jr arire frr Pelfgny Abin, fb V zvtuga'g pner nobhg vg vs V unqa'g cynlrq YYgD, ohg V qvq naq V qb!)

Few questions about Esmerai that’s spoilery in nature.

Is Esmerai’s assassination linked to Dragocen? I noticed she was still around after I successfully deceived her at the opera and had gotten rid of Dragocen. 

Can she ever get more than 7 votes or win the crown?

Also I hope there’s another way to hide spoilery text - I have to use ChatGPT to translate ROT13.