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Innovation Lens's itch.io pageResults
| Criteria | Rank | Score* | Raw Score |
| Overall | #7 | 3.833 | 3.833 |
Ranked from 6 ratings. Score is adjusted from raw score by the median number of ratings per game in the jam.
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The cleanest and most concise pitch I've read up to now! The website works and shows a lot of good work.
However you came here for critical feedback that might be useful so:
1. in the pitch you claim your differentiator is "but none claim the same level of predictive validation. " but nowhere in the pitch do you mention how it works (i understand a lot of it is your patent pending trade secret), which is understandable, but then you should lead with some other form of proof such as backtesting results. Otherwise we just have to take this all on faith. The site itself for some reason only shows me data and predictions made until 2018 in the free trial... it would be interesting to see if these predictions became true, and what things did it miss to predict, etc. something! If you haven't done this, go back and do it! it would be a great proof of concept to investors / patrons / users.
2. I think a better model for the free trial is to show more information, so that it's useful to investors, but put a cap on how many searches / questions can be asked per day / month. this gives quick value to potential customers, but then immediately tells them they need to pay for constant use. (this is my first idea, and it might not be right, but i think the current system of only showing you data until 2018 is not satisfying / useful to most people)
3. I love the intended aim of this: to help identify the frontier of innovation and where to invest in it to accelerate it! So i hope your mission succeeds, the EV is astronomical if you crack this! So another suggestion I have to make this succeed is to consider changing the interface. I think that a 2d high dimensional visual compression looks "nice" but isn't useful for most power users (Which is what paying investors would want), you need to turn this into a bloomberg terminal for research and predictions. I want more data driven information density , graphs, or other ways of showing the information faster and more usefully.
Love the mission!
Had to break for the night, but I know there's def something to this area you're alluding to. It's a valuable area to be playing in, since determining where research should be, that is really broken in my experience...!
I worked under someone named Puja Ohlhaver a few years ago, helping her run the first in what was supposed to be a series of funding round events. It was based on the topics discussed here:
The website and some code is here:
- https://www.pluralresearch.org/
- https://github.com/lexicongovernance/pluraltools-frontend
- https://github.com/PluralCC
The idea was to allow people who guess at the sites of future innovation (in semantic space) to gain more power to direct funds in each successive round. We ran the session at Eth.Berlin 2024, and gave away 50K EUR in grants i think.
The goal was kinda to reflow power from the funders and tenured researchers (who don't really follow the frontier) to the grad students (who have wider knowledge). A side-goal was also to promote cross-collaboration using Polis clusters (the tool I was managing).
Anyhow, it sounds like it might not be the exact same, but it's in your neighborhood -- I'll read the rest of the pitch tomorrow! You're in a valuable area though!
EDIT: I'm seeing some focus in other comments on the missing context of "the algorithm" and I think that's correct to point out, and an important omission. I've seen algorithms explained fully in public (see the talk above), and I'm not sure you should be operating from point of view of patenting it, because it's the whole magic, and it must be auditable, no? Besides, patenting an algorithm seems like unhelpful attempts at capture. I don't think I can really evaluate the pitch without knowing the algorithm, despite my thinking the opportunity is very ripe.
Awesome pitch and awesome product. I have a research paper behind my product, so I used the Demo, and it was helpful for finding further reading related to what I was working on. I do wish that you guys gave the option to list if you were a founder and researcher, maybe in the next version, but it felt like I was limiting my options by picking one. Additionally, the papers that surfaced when I wrote about what I was working on were more helpful than those that surfaced when I generated a report with a specific keyword provided. I fortunately bookmarked them, but after that, it seems almost impossible to find them once you move on to the next page. Pitch was solid overall.
This is a strong pitch for how succinct it is. I can understand what you're trying to achieve. If it really works out it would clearly be a >>billion dollar business.
The pitch as it stands puts the algorithm itself as a bit of a black box, and the algorithm is clearly The Thing here - and to inspire more confidence I think it would be good to talk more about "how you know it does what you claim" or "why you have the expertise to make this work" or something in that area. as it stands there's very little in your pitch that a crank who wants to claim they are doing something but doesn't actually have something real couldn't also say, if you see what I mean - you need evidence to make potential investors and partners bayesian update. if you don't have strong evidence yet, "what evals were planning to run" could also work for this - a plan to get the evidence.
cool tech, I'm likely not the ideal target audience for it though.
It would be really interesting if you had a "track record" of predictions and how many you hit / missed. Would really make someone go "wow" if you had a high hit rate (or, maybe some kalshi bets will start opening up about your site haha)
Super interesting concept! I'm very interested in whether or not your implementation would be able to accurately predict which frontiers are likely to have upcoming breakthroughs and advancements. The most interesting thing would be if it could predict unexpected advancements in fields that didn't have steady progress recently. Obviously predicting "this gradually advancing field will keep advancing gradually" is easy, but predicting something unlikely would really be neat. I do wonder, however, how you're planning on defining breakthroughs? What would be the metrics to determine whether or not the algorithm's guesses were correct? Plenty of researchers publish very self-important papers with big claims, which never lead to any manifest improvements in real technology. How would you define the difference? Anyway, if you have a prototype version of this going somewhere, I'd love to play with it!
hey @extenebrislucet! thanks for the feedback. The metric we used for validation was citation count ("breakthrough" = within 24 months an article in top 15% by citation count is published within a given radius epsilon of the prediction previously made). There are definitely some surprising predictions that don't belong to steadily advancing fields. The most impressive is that we predicted the importance of llm code generation back in 2023, when Cursor was just starting out. There are several videos about this prediction at youtube.com/@innovationlens There is a live free demo at innovationlens.org, with restricted access. For a small fee you can access fresher data too.
Give it a try, I'd love to hear your feedback!