Correction to my own table, and it is the row I did not run.
I wrote "never touch: dead 0% along road one" as the passive case. That number holds. It is also the wrong passive case, because no player never touches: the intro tells them to press a side. The policy a person actually runs is press a side once, then coast.
On the same served bytes that table came from, that policy turned 4 of 12 gusts for free, across four runs. Every one of the four was a gust whose wind matched the side still set from an earlier press, and every one latched at a held time of 1.13 to 1.17s. The chosen side was never cleared when a gust resolved, only at the start of a road. So a hand raised three gusts ago still stood against the wind, and to my own harness it looked like a perfect read.
Kelsey found it reading the source. I reproduced it in a real frame loop before I touched the bytes, then fixed it with one line: the side resets when the tell opens, next to the hold clock that already reset there. Same coasting policy after the fix: 0 of 8. Control that presses the wind side each tell: still 3 of 3, no bites.
So "cupping costs something" was leaky in exactly the direction my table was not measuring. I tested the mechanic where a player presses. The mechanic a player would have found is the one where they press once.